The Oscar's come but once a year, and this year I was really going to ignore them after all the controversy they have caused by snubbing several great movies (Beasts of No Nation, Creed, and my favourite movie of the year, Straight Outta Compton).
But after watching other reviewers talk about the Oscar's I started thinking about it, and then I started to get caught up in it. So long story short, I caved! Here is my list of who, not necessarily should win, but will win the Oscar for their category based on past winner's.
Best Picture
I looked back at the last five Best Picture award winners. Three out of the five where all movies which were about the movie industry, but none of the nominee's this year are for a movie of that category.
The two other movies that won Oscar's in the past five years are both period pieces, Twelve Years A Slave and The King's Speech. So by this logic that narrows the list down to three movies, The Revenant, Brooklyn and Bridge of Spies.
I then looked at the Best Picture winners in the last decade which are surprisingly very varied. The main theme I began to see though was movies about one man overcoming the odds, whether it be through war, slavery, poverty or his stutter.
When you add both a period setting and one man overcoming the odds to further his cause I have to give my Best Picture prediction to...
THE REVENANT! Yes, I said it. There's is nothing more that the Academy likes (besides themselves) than a movie about one man overcoming the odds in a beautiful period like setting. This doesn't mean it isn't a good movie, I'd say it was pretty great. Seriously how much can one man take? I kept thinking it couldn't get any worse for the guy and then it would. But it wasn't my favourite movie of the year.
Best Original Screenplay
This is probably the hardest one to judge so I may as well just get it out of the way and be very wrong in the process. This is made even harder by the fact that three of my top ten movies of 2015 are actually in this category. It becomes even harder when you factor in the previous winners in this category as on the surface they all look so different. But I have to choose one of these nominees to win it, no matter how much my brain hurts while I try to figure this out.
I have to give the edge to Ex Machina, as the trend of lonely characters trying to make a connection seems to just edge it when it comes to Original Screenplay winners. If your wondering, the other trends are characters trying to overcome a situation (be it Teen Pregnancy, Slavery, Homophobia, or a Stutter), and Writers/Filmmakers.
I would be pretty happy if Ex Machina won the oscar as the movie is completely engaging and has a great twist that even I didn't see coming. I would also be happy if Straight Outta Compton or Inside Out won this award, and after all that I beat now it will go to Spotlight.
Best Adapted Screenplay
When I was looking over the past winners for Best Adapted Screenplay the pattern was strangely apparent. Four out of the past five winners are for movies which have been based on real life events (I check the descendants and as far as I can tell it is fiction). This makes it really easy for me as only one of the movies listed in this category is based on real life events and that my friends is...
That's right, The Big Short. I haven't actually saw this film yet, there is only so many that I can watch and I also don't get screeners as this site currently has a small reader base. I also think it would make me very angry seeing people get rich off the biggest economic meltdown of my lifetime, one which affected my life in such a big way at such a young age. My personal preference goes to The Martian as it is the only movie I have seen in this category, remember... can't watch everything.
Visual Effects
While looking at the past Visual Effects Oscar winners is another really obvious pattern, four out of these five winners were released during the Fall and all of these past five winners have been spectacles in their own right. I also have the added advantage of having seen all the movies nominated in this category.
While looking over these past winners I also noticed that all of the movies in the original Star Wars Trilogy won Oscars for visual effects, be that the actual visual effects Oscar or a Special Achievement Award. This could mean that The Force Awakens could easily take the Oscar but I don't think it will. Not that it wouldn't deserve it, the mixture of practical and CGI was beautifully flawless, but I don't believe it was the movie that everybody was talking about when it came to graphics. I believe that award will go to...
That's right it is a lovely day indeed. The effects in this movie are breathtaking, from exploding fireballs to the sandstorms. Don't get me started on how good this landscape looks, even when they are just driving along it looks incredible. Yes I am slightly torn because both The Force Awakens and The Martian could also easily take the Oscar home in this category but I am sticking to my guns as even though it wasn't released in the fall it was the most talked about in the visual effects department, which I feel just gives it the win. It deserves it for the sandstorm scene alone.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
I won't tease you with a big spiel before hand, I believe the award will go to...
That's right it's going to Leo. I think it will go to Leo as while looking at the past winners the man going through some form of hardship angle was repeated over and over again and it was too big to ignore. So sorry Matt Damon, even though Astronaut Mark Watney went through an awful lot in The Martian, Hugh Glass went through much more. Leo has also been nominated for six Oscars (five for acting) so I think even though this wasn't his best performance it was by far the most demanding.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
For this one I couldn't really find the connection. I was even starting to think my only lead was Actors who went through real transformations for the roles (Christian Bale in The Fighter and Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club). So I decided instead of sitting here for another hour trying to find the connection to movies, most of which I haven't seen, I would instead tell you who I personally think should win the Oscar, and that is...
That's right I am giving the Oscar to Sly, out of all the nominations I feel that this would be the best choice. Rocky was Sylvester Stallone's baby, he was nominated for two Oscars back in 1977 and I feel that it is about time he got one for this character. It has been almost forty years and I think this, coupled with the great supporting role he gave in Creed, will finally win him the Oscar.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
This formula is much like its male counterpart, woman has tough time be it because of illness, falls on hard times, has to fight sexism in a male dominated world or against a younger model. This is my reason why I think the nomination will go to...
That;s right, Brie Larson for her portrayal of Joy Newsome. This lady went into isolation for a month to prepare for the role
, have you ever been in isolation for a few days, it is enough to drive most of us up the wall. Not only is her character's journey brutal, but this movie can also be beautiful in some places and like previous years critics and fans alike have done nothing but rave about this performance.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The connection between most female Supporting Role Oscars is again another one of women who go through hardship, be it by discrimination, slavery, or simply by an unwed woman trying to save enough to feed for her child. But this one is much tougher to call, out of all the nominees three went through more hardship than the five in one way or another. I believe the nomination will go to...
Alicia Vikander ladies and gentlemen, for her role as Gerda Wegener in the Danish Girl. Now I haven't seen this movie, I read the entire synopsis online, remember what I said before about not being able to see every movie on this list. But from what I have read and critical responses it is clear that Alicia is the clear favorite to win the oscar.
That's All Folks!
Now I would love to go through the rest of the categories but here is where I must stop. I have been writing this post for almost eight hours and I think if that if I do anymore I will actually need to go lie in a dark room for some time. I wish I had the time to watch every movie which has been nominated, that would have made this post much easier, but that is sadly not the case. Who do you think will win in these categories? Will I be 100% wrong? Comment below.
*Edit - I forgot to say that I didn't predict the Best Directing Oscar, as for me it is too close to call between Alejandro González Iñárritu and George Miller. Miller might have the edge as Alejandro González Iñárritu won the award last year but it's still too close to call.*
As always if you like this post then please feel free to check out some more below. I think I deserve a rest after this, oh and a nice cool beer.
Daredevil Trailer Review - http://mcqsviews.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/daredevil-trailer-part-2.html
Game of Thrones: Hall of Faces - http://mcqsviews.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/game-of-thrones-hall-of-faces-trailer.html
Pictures Courtesy of 20th Century Fox/Universal/Paramount/Warner Bros/A24 Films
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